Forecast Game - Opening Day Weekend

[Aero737]

Here's how it works. At 12 midnight (CDT) your forecast is due. We will forecast for
1. Sky Condition
2. Temperature
3. Precipitation
4. Winds

You will forecast for 10am, 1pm, and 7pm for both Saturday and Sunday (29th and 30th). You will also format a forecast discussion (no need for meteorology jargon unless you wish to add it).

Scoring:
For every 1 degree F off, you are given 1 point...
For every 5 mph of wind off (rounded up at 2.5), you are given 1 point...
For every Cardinal Direction you are off (N, S, E, W) you are given one point.
Precipitation Falls into these categories...
1. None
2. Trace
3. .01-.1
4. .1-.25
5 .25-.5
6. .5+
For you will be charged as many points as you are categories off. So if you pick .5+ and there is no precipitation, then you get charged 5 points.
Sky condition fall into one of the following categories ...
1. Cloudy
2. Mostly Cloudy
3. Partly Cloudy
4. Clear
You will be scored as many points as you are off.

Weight, obviously, the farther out the harder a forecast is, this is why forecasts from Tuesday will have a much lower weight than forecasts the night before. The factor is by 4.

Tuesday Night - One Half weight
Wednesday Night - Weight times one
Thursday Night - Weight times one and a half
Friday Night - Weight times two

So on Tuesday, all points are worth 1, on Friday, 1 point is 2.

If you miss a night, then the previous night's forecast will be used at the current nights weight.

Scores will be verified by the national weather service page here...
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KUGN.html

Good luck and anyone is free to play!

[Aero737]

Forecast Valid from 12 midnight 26 April

Saturday:
10am: Mostly Cloudy, a chance of showers, a temperature of 45, the winds out of the east at 10 mph. Precipitation amounts from 10am - 1pm .01-.1. Chance of precipitation 40%

1pm: Cloudy, a chance of showers, a temperature of 50, the winds out of the east at 10 mph. Precipitation amounts fror 1pm - 7pm .01-.1. Chance of precipation 50%

7pm: Cloudy, showers, a temperature of 51m winds out of the east at 15 moh. Precipitation ... (need to confer with mike on this). Chance of precipitation 50%

Sunday
10am: Cloudy, showers, a temperature of 47, the winds out of the east at 20mph. Precip amounts from 10am - 1pm .01-.1. Chance of precipitation 60%

1pm: Cloudy, showers, a temperature of 53, the winds out fo the east at 20mph, higher gusts. Precip amounts from 1pm -7pm .1-.25. Chance of precipitation 70%

7pm: Cloudy, a chance showers, a temperature of 51, the winds out of the N at 10mph. Precipamounts from (....) Chance of precip 40%


Discussion: Low pressure tracking out of missouri will track north of springfield or near bloomington, this will keep us in the East flow and in th rain shield. System won't be moving quick, so precip might be around for a while. Temps might be over estimated based on cold lake temps. Although any break in the cloud cover could rapidly lead to warming. So far only one model can accuratly track path of low, but I have fiar confidence as it's been somewhat steady in it's runs. Looks like a cold rainy weekend.

Edit 12:03, I know we're only supposed to forecast for the hours, but let me just add my predicted net high and low.. Satuday: 55/42 Sunday: 57/41

[Aero737]

Forecast Valid from 12 midnight 27 April

Saturday:
10am: Mostly Cloudy, a chance of showers, a temperature of 44, the winds out of the east at 10 mph. Precipitation amounts from 10am - 1pm .01-.1. Chance of precipitation 40%

1pm: Cloudy, a chance of showers, a temperature of 50, the winds out of the east at 10 mph. Precipitation amounts fror 1pm - 7pm .01-.1. Chance of precipation 50%

7pm: Cloudy, showers, a temperature of 51 winds out of the east at 15 moh. Precipitation ... (need to confer with mike on this). Chance of precipitation 50%

Sunday
10am: Cloudy, showers, a temperature of 43, the winds out of the east at 20mph. Precip amounts from 10am - 1pm .1-.25. Chance of precipitation 60%

1pm: Cloudy, showers, a temperature of 53, the winds out fo the east at 20mph, higher gusts. Precip amounts from 1pm -7pm .1-.25. Chance of precipitation 70%

7pm: Cloudy, a chance showers, a temperature of 48, the winds out of the N at 10mph. Precipamounts from (....) Chance of precip 40%


Discussion: Not many changes from yesterday except to lower the temperatures slightly and raise precipitation amounds. It's looking like some areas will get 2 inches of rain this weekend. Temperatures have come down a bit in accordance to my thinking yesterday of the models underestimating the cold lake. Again, as the week progresses information will become more avaible, but it's looking to be quite a washout this weekend.

[RagingBullFan]

Ugh, I guess its time to go buy a reflective raincoat.

[Do I Know You]

1. Cloudy
2. 90F
3. None
4. 5MPH W

That was my highly researched scientific forecast. It will be that way.

[Galvan]

Saturday:


10AM:

Mostly Cloudy with a few peaks of the sun, otherwise cool 48 Winds out of the NorthEast at 10 to 15 Chance of Precip 30%

1PM: Mostly Cloudy passing showers winds off the lake 10 to 15 1pm Temp: 55 Chance of Precipitation 40%

7pm: Overcast, showers possible winds 10 to 15 again off the lake (N-NE) Temp: 49 Chance of showers 60%

1am: Showers possible winds generally out of the N-NE at 5-10 mph Temp 43 Chance of precip 60%


Sunday: 10AM: Rain likely, with winds varible 5-10 mph. Temp 45 Chance of Precip 70%

1pm: Rain, heavy at times with a rumble of Thunder, winds out of the South to becoming varible 10-15 mph Temp 53 Chance of Precip 80%

7pm: Rain, Thunderstorms possible Temp 49 Chance of Precip near 100%

Discussion: A low pressure system will develop out of the Rockies midweek and track to the Upper Great Lakes by the Weekend, while current forecast runs differ on Saturday, Sunday looks to be the worse of the two days with Thunderstorms likely on Sunday. Temperatures will struggle both days to reach 56 degrees. Sunday could be a real soaker with anywhere from 1/2 to 1 inch of rain expected.

I LOVE THIS GAME!

[Galvan]

Updating my earlier Forecast


Saturday:


10am

Mostly Cloudy and Cool, 44 degrees and winds out of the East-Northwest 15-20 MPH It will feel cooler with the winds of the Lake, Wind Chills 39-42
Chance of Showers any precip will be light with totals .1 to .3 inches. Total Chance of Precipiation: 30%

1pm: Continued Cloudy, Damp and Raw, winds continue out of the East-NE 15-20. High of 52 a shower cannot be ruled out as well 40% Chance.

7pm: Showers and Windy, Winds East at 15-20 Low of 42 chance of rain 50% Rain totals .02 to .04 inches.


Sunday:

10am: Showers developing in the Afternoon, Mostly Cloudy and cool, 39 degrees winds generally from the East at 15. Chance of Rain 40%

1pm: Showers possible remaining Cloudy, Damp and Cool, High of 53, Winds out of the East at 15. Chance of Rain 60%

7pm: Showers and Thunderstorms, Chilly, with a low around 40. Rain totals anywhere from .5 inches to 1 inch. Chance of rain 70%.

Discussion: A Strong Low Pressure System will develop out of the Canadian Rockies late Wednesday Into the Thursday, As this system approches the area, clouds will develop over the area and the winds will begin to pick up generally out of the West.

As the Low continues east, it will being wet conditions over most of the Area Saturday Night, and then again on the Day Sunday. Various computer models suggest varing amounts of Rain each day. However, Sunday looks to be the wetter of the weekend days. The Winds will make it also feel like Late October instead of Late April.


GALVAN

[Aero737]

Saturday:
10am: Partly Cloudy, temperature of 48, ESE winds at 10 mph.


1pm: Cloudy, a chance of showers, a temperature of 50, the winds out of the ESEat 10 mph. Precipitation amounts forr 1pm - 7pm Trace. Chance of pricip 30%

7pm: Cloudy, showers, a temperature of 49 winds out of the east at 15 mph. Precipitation ... (need to confer with mike on this). Chance of precipitation 50%

Sunday
10am: Cloudy, showers, a temperature of 46, the winds out of the east at 20mph. Precip amounts from 10am - 1pm .1-.25. Chance of precipitation 70%

1pm: Cloudy, showers, a temperature of 52, the winds out fo the east at 20mph, higher gusts. Precip amounts from 1pm -7pm .25-.5. Chance of precipitation 90%

7pm: Cloudy, a chance showers, a temperature of 48, the winds out of the N at 15mph higher gusts. Precipamounts from (....) Chance of precip 80%

Discussion: Lowered precip chances on satuday and raised them on sunday. Total weekend precip looks to be around 2 inches with much falling on saturday night. Models have both slowed on the track of the storm. Path seems to be steady. Both have a broad rain field which will begin to affect us as light showers saturday afternoon. I've decided to leave out any mention of thunder as I think the cool lake will have a stabalizing effect that clost to the lake, don't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder far inland. Temps lowered even more as it appears it will be a bit windier.

[Galvan]

I will have my final forecast tonight.

[Aero737]

Saturday:

10am: South winds 10mph, temperature of 49. Cloudy

1pm: Precipitation starting around 2pm. Cloudy. Precip amounts from 1pm - 7pm .01-.1 with locally higher amounts. South East winds at 15mph, higher gusts.

7pm: Rain, cloudy, precip amounts overnight .5+. Possible thunder inland. SE winds turning east at 20mph higher gusts. 7pm temperature of 49.

Sunday:

10am: East winds at 20mph, chance of precipitation. Cloudy Precip amounts from 10am - 1pm .01-.1. Temperature of 47

1pm: East winds at 15mph, cloudy, chance of precipitation ending at 1. Precip amounts: trace. Temperatures of 51

7pm: NE winds at 15mph, cloudy, temperature of 49.

------------
Discussion: Models all now in excellent agreement, I went with the GFS and WRF. New storm path will keep the storm in nebraska. This will keep us out of the low intensity persistant rain but put us into the heavy and steady with a few breaks instead. Both in agreement of a drypunch coming in around noon which will end all precipitation threats for sunday. Saturday on the other hand, models all have rain shield coming in at 18z or 1pm and not ending until late saturday night. Possbility for flood watch over CWA.

[Aero737]

Results for Tonight:
------------------------
Aero
96 Hour forecast: 11points (1/2 weight) = 5.5
72 Hour forecast: 13points (1 weight) = 13
48 Hour forecast: 4 points (1 1/2 weight) = 6
24 Hour forecast: 9 ponts (2 weight) = 18

Total points for today: 42.5
------------------------

Galvan
96 Hour forecast: Missing
72 Hour forecast: 9 points (1 weight) = 9
48 Hour forecast: 22 points (1 1/2 weight) = 33
24 Hour forecast: Missing

Total Points for today: 42
------------------------

Do I Know You
96 Hour forecast: Missing
72 Hour forecast: 49 points (1 weight) = 49
48 Hour forecast: Missing
24 Hour forecast: Missing

Total Points for today: 49